Our bet-spread simulator, validated against CVCX
Casino Vérité (CVCX), by QFIT, is the reference many advantage players use for blackjack betting math. To check that our in-app bet-spread simulator holds up the same way, we ran it against CVCX across 16 real CAC2 spread configurations, matching the betting ramp, penetration, table pace, count and deviations, and compared the headline numbers. The results line up.
Standard deviation matches CVCX to about 1% on every configuration; bet sizing and variance are modelled the same. Expected value agrees to roughly 0.06 of a percentage-point on average. Both tools run the identical CAC2 count and deviation set, so the small residual is just what you would expect between two independently built tools — our hand-by-hand simulator and CVCX, which derives its figures from its own simulations and then computes the betting math on top of them.
How we tested
- Each row replays one CVCX run through our Monte-Carlo engine using the identical bet ramp, penetration, table pace and bankroll.
- Both tools used the CAC2 count with an H17 deviation set and the same wong-out rule (leave for a fresh shoe when the count goes cold).
- We tested both true-count divisor methods the app supports, ceil and round (nearest), across one- and two-hand play.
- Every configuration ran 100M rounds, so the comparison reflects the model, not simulation noise.
CAC2 is proprietary, so we do not publish its tag values, index plays, or the per-true-count bet ramps. The table below shows only outputs (expected value, standard deviation and risk of ruin) plus each spread's unitless top-to-bottom ratio.
The numbers, side by side
2-deck, H17, DAS · CAC2 count & deviations · half-deck divisor · $25,000 bankroll.
| Configuration | Spread | EV% CVCX | Ours | Δ | SD/hr CVCX | Ours | RoR% CVCX | Ours |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ceil divisor | ||||||||
| 1.5 decks dealt · 1 hand · $25 min | 1–28× | 2.674 | 2.803 | +0.129 | 2,456 | 2,474 | 2.57 | 2.59 |
| 1.5 decks dealt · 1 hand · $15 min | 1–47× | 2.913 | 3.051 | +0.138 | 2,443 | 2,462 | 2.33 | 2.39 |
| 1.25 decks dealt · 1 hand · $25 min | 1–16× | 1.817 | 1.827 | +0.010 | 1,939 | 1,948 | 3.49 | 3.79 |
| 1.25 decks dealt · 1 hand · $15 min | 1–27× | 2.044 | 2.118 | +0.074 | 1,923 | 1,932 | 2.97 | 2.95 |
| 1.5 decks dealt · 2 hands · $25 min | 1–16× | 2.522 | 2.575 | +0.053 | 2,482 | 2,447 | 4.10 | 4.32 |
| 1.5 decks dealt · 2 hands · $15 min | 1–27× | 2.677 | 2.666 | -0.011 | 2,475 | 2,439 | 3.84 | 4.45 |
| 1.25 decks dealt · 2 hands · $25 min | 1–12× | 1.725 | 1.732 | +0.007 | 1,663 | 1,639 | 3.19 | 3.38 |
| 1.25 decks dealt · 2 hands · $15 min | 1–20× | 1.903 | 1.886 | -0.017 | 1,651 | 1,627 | 2.73 | 3.09 |
| Round (nearest) divisor | ||||||||
| 1.5 decks dealt · 2 hands · $25 min | 1–20× | 2.789 | 2.864 | +0.075 | 2,597 | 2,570 | 4.19 | 4.36 |
| 1.5 decks dealt · 2 hands · $15 min | 1–33× | 2.964 | 3.063 | +0.099 | 2,590 | 2,562 | 3.97 | 4.10 |
| 1.25 decks dealt · 2 hands · $25 min | 1–16× | 1.983 | 2.033 | +0.050 | 1,846 | 1,846 | 4.14 | 4.35 |
| 1.25 decks dealt · 2 hands · $15 min | 1–27× | 2.181 | 2.237 | +0.056 | 1,835 | 1,835 | 3.70 | 3.94 |
| 1.25 decks dealt · 1 hand · $25 min | 1–20× | 1.898 | 1.934 | +0.036 | 2,101 | 2,077 | 3.83 | 3.87 |
| 1.25 decks dealt · 1 hand · $15 min | 1–33× | 2.092 | 2.130 | +0.038 | 2,087 | 2,062 | 3.40 | 3.49 |
| 1.5 decks dealt · 1 hand · $15 min | 1–33× | 2.646 | 2.772 | +0.126 | 2,490 | 2,523 | 2.27 | 2.49 |
| 1.5 decks dealt · 1 hand · $25 min | 1–20× | 2.470 | 2.574 | +0.104 | 2,501 | 2,534 | 2.47 | 2.71 |
FAQ
Is the simulator as accurate as CVCX?
Do you reveal the CAC2 count or its spreads?
AdvantagePlay is an independent product and is not affiliated with or endorsed by QFIT or Casino Vérité. We mention them out of respect for their work and only for honest comparison.